IdeaNavigator AI Daily opportunity briefs

Track Record

We score our own calls.

Each published report now carries a dated, resolvable prediction. The ledger marks calls confirmed, refuted, or still open using the same daily signal checks and public company signals that power the intelligence graph. The point is not hype; it is a public record of when the site was right and when it killed its own thesis.

100%* resolved hit rate (provisional)
50% confirmed of all calls
0/126 reached judgment date
0% owned kill rate
0.088 Brier calibration

* Provisional. 0 of 126 calls have reached their 90-day judgment date, so none has yet had the opportunity to be refuted. The resolved hit rate reflects early confirmations, not a settled record. The honest floor is the non-cherry-picked 50% confirmed of all 126 calls made — 63 are still inside their window. The real test begins as calls mature.

Ledger refreshed July 25, 2026. Resolutions are deterministic and appended to /changes.json as verdict-resolved.

Prediction ledger

Resolved verdicts and open calls.

Confirmed means the opportunity strengthened inside the window. Refuted means the site’s own signal decay rules killed the thesis. Open calls remain visible.

Confirmed

63

Signals strengthened or a same-vertical company/funding signal arrived during the prediction window.

Refuted

0

Owned kills: theses the site downgraded because the signal window elapsed without support.

Open

63

Still awaiting enough dated evidence to resolve without manual judgment.

Confidence bin Resolved Avg confidence Realized hit rate Brier score
40-60% 12 53.9% 100% 0.213
60-80% 32 71.2% 100% 0.085
80-100% 19 88% 100% 0.015

Receipts

Every call, dated and resolvable.

Resolved calls first, then open ones. Latest 50 shown; the full ledger is at /predictions.json. Each card deep-links via #prediction-<slug>.

confirmed 55% confidence

Grammarly for lawsuits

Demand for Legal tech / access-to-justice software for self-represented (pro se) litigants and small businesses pursuing civil disputes, demand letters, and small-claims filings strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

July 25, 2026
confirmed 48% confidence

Vocal-strain load tracking for working singers

Demand for Professional voice-care and vocal-strain monitoring strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

July 24, 2026
confirmed 50% confidence

RSVP-and-payment co-host tool for supper club hosts

Demand for Private events and community hosting strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

July 22, 2026
confirmed 88% confidence

Entertainment signal monitor: Toy Story 5

Demand for Entertainment strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

July 19, 2026
confirmed 54% confidence

Fair-value appraisals for used GPUs and AI hardware

Demand for Used AI infrastructure and GPU resale strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

July 19, 2026
confirmed 57% confidence

Human-review tracker for AI-assisted agency delivery

Demand for Service-delivery operations software strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

July 18, 2026
confirmed 52% confidence

Blended retainer-plus-usage billing for agencies

Demand for Agency billing and invoicing software strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

July 16, 2026
confirmed 64% confidence

Parent-teacher meeting prep brief

Demand for Education administration strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

July 16, 2026
confirmed 69% confidence

Micro-agency proposal scope checker

Demand for Service operations strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

July 4, 2026 · Evidence
confirmed 73% confidence

Open-source sponsor update generator

Demand for Developer operations strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

June 29, 2026 · Evidence
confirmed 71% confidence

Board packet generator for HOA managers

Demand for Community management strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

June 26, 2026 · Evidence

Signal re-checks

How the back catalog is aging.

Strengthening = two or more live signals. Steady = one. Quiet = none in the current sweep — a finding, not a verdict.

strengthening 30d old

Grammarly for lawsuits

Legal, Risk & Compliance · Research 53/100 at publication

  • 2 newer reports published in Legal, Risk & Compliance since this one.
  • 6 newer reports share at least one tag.
Published June 25, 2026
strengthening 49d old

Parent-teacher meeting prep brief

Education & Training · Research 62/100 at publication

  • 3 newer reports published in Education & Training since this one.
  • 2 newer reports share at least one tag.
  • 2 live complaint clusters still echo the underlying pain.
Published June 6, 2026

Methodology

  • Vertical coverage — newer reports published in the same vertical since this one.
  • Tag momentum — newer reports sharing at least one tag.
  • Trend overlap — current trend candidates matching the idea's market and tag language.
  • Complaint echo — live complaint clusters still carrying the idea's tags.

Deterministic, recomputed from the daily research sweep, and free of paid API calls. A re-check measures signal persistence around the opportunity — it does not claim anyone built the idea.

Prediction methodology

  • One claim per report — derived from the publication verdict and why-now thesis.
  • Confirmed — signal checks strengthen, or a funded same-vertical company signal appears inside the window.
  • Refuted — the window closes and the site’s own re-check finds no surviving signal.
  • Calibration — predicted confidence is binned against realized outcomes with a Brier-style score.

Use it like an analyst

Strengthening + Validate verdict is the highest-leverage combination in the archive: the evidence aged well and nobody has claimed the wedge. Open the report, run its 7-day sprint, and decide on data.

Verify this page

Every number here is recomputed from public data you can hash yourself — no trust required.

  • Full ledger: /predictions.json — the same records rendered above.
  • Tamper check: /manifest.json pins a SHA-256 hash of every data endpoint (the ledger included) and the exact gitCommit the build shipped from.
  • Embed the badge: <img src="https://ideanavigatorai.com/badge/track-record.svg"> — live hit rate, sample size, and Brier score.