Track Record

We score our own calls.

Each published report now carries a dated, resolvable prediction. The ledger marks calls confirmed, refuted, or still open using the same daily signal checks and public company signals that power the intelligence graph. The point is not hype; it is a public record of when the site was right and when it killed its own thesis.

100% resolved hit rate
77.2% confirmed of all calls
127/311 reached judgment date
0% owned kill rate
0.122 Brier calibration

Ledger refreshed October 24, 2026. Resolutions are deterministic and appended to /changes.json as verdict-resolved.

Prediction ledger

Resolved verdicts and open calls.

Confirmed means the opportunity strengthened inside the window. Refuted means the site’s own signal decay rules killed the thesis. Open calls remain visible.

Confirmed

240

Signals strengthened or a same-vertical company/funding signal arrived during the prediction window.

Refuted

0

Owned kills: theses the site downgraded because the signal window elapsed without support.

Open

71

Still awaiting enough dated evidence to resolve without manual judgment.

Confidence bin Resolved Avg confidence Realized hit rate Brier score
40-60% 102 51.8% 100% 0.234
60-80% 41 69% 100% 0.099
80-100% 97 88% 100% 0.014

Receipts

Every call, dated and resolvable.

Resolved calls first, then open ones. Latest 50 shown; the full ledger is at /predictions.json. Each card deep-links via #prediction-<slug>.

confirmed 55% confidence

Daily story-capture companion for dementia families

Demand for Dementia care / family caregiving apps strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

October 23, 2026
confirmed 46% confidence

Evidence packager for disputing fake reviews

Demand for Local business reputation tools strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

October 23, 2026
confirmed 50% confidence

One-page show-day run sheets for performers

Demand for Solo-performer business tools strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

October 23, 2026
confirmed 46% confidence

Late-invoice chaser for freelancers

Demand for Freelancer fintech strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

October 21, 2026
confirmed 50% confidence

Phone-photo gauge reading to replace clipboard rounds

Demand for Industrial operations / facilities software strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

October 19, 2026
confirmed 46% confidence

Workflow cloner for helpdesk platform switches

Demand for Customer support operations tooling strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

October 17, 2026
confirmed 46% confidence

Vendor approval workflow for mid-market procurement

Demand for Procurement operations software strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

October 13, 2026
confirmed 45% confidence

AI scope-of-work reviewer for agency selection

Demand for Marketing procurement tools strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

October 12, 2026
confirmed 46% confidence

Full-business backup for platform-dependent creators

Demand for Creator economy infrastructure strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

October 10, 2026
confirmed 48% confidence

OAuth-grant visibility dashboard for team tool stacks

Demand for SaaS security posture for small teams strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

October 9, 2026
confirmed 58% confidence

AI call answering that books jobs for the trades

Demand for Home services front-office software strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

October 8, 2026
confirmed 50% confidence

One-click employee offboarding for startups without IT

Demand for SMB identity and security operations strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

October 8, 2026
confirmed 46% confidence

Cohort-based recovery programs for phone addiction

Demand for Digital wellness / behavioral health strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

October 4, 2026
confirmed 45% confidence

Watch-once spoken commands for desktop workflows

Demand for Desktop automation / productivity software strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

October 3, 2026
confirmed 88% confidence

Food signal monitor: taco bell ice cream taco

Demand for Food strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

October 2, 2026
confirmed 46% confidence

Week-by-week household money map for new widowers

Demand for Consumer finance / life-transition tools strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

October 1, 2026
confirmed 47% confidence

Pre-demo condition verdicts for pre-1980 fixer buyers

Demand for Home renovation risk assessment strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

September 30, 2026
confirmed 46% confidence

Sales-cap early warning for cottage food vendors

Demand for Home-based food business tools strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

September 29, 2026

Signal re-checks

How the back catalog is aging.

Strengthening = two or more live signals. Steady = one. Quiet = none in the current sweep — a finding, not a verdict.

strengthening 102d old

Defense security cert

Legal, Risk & Compliance · Research 52/100 at publication

  • 5 newer reports published in Legal, Risk & Compliance since this one.
  • 11 newer reports share at least one tag.
Published July 14, 2026
strengthening 104d old

Backyard home reports

Real Estate & Property · Rethink 47/100 at publication

  • 6 newer reports published in Real Estate & Property since this one.
  • 4 newer reports share at least one tag.
Published July 12, 2026
strengthening 105d old

Empty trust tracker

Education & Training · Research 56/100 at publication

  • 6 newer reports published in Education & Training since this one.
  • 7 newer reports share at least one tag.
Published July 11, 2026
strengthening 109d old

Women's health radar

Healthcare & Life Sciences · Research 56/100 at publication

  • 32 newer reports published in Healthcare & Life Sciences since this one.
  • 3 newer reports share at least one tag.
Published July 7, 2026
strengthening 112d old

Retirement care planner

Healthcare & Life Sciences · Research 56/100 at publication

  • 34 newer reports published in Healthcare & Life Sciences since this one.
  • 13 newer reports share at least one tag.
Published July 4, 2026
strengthening 113d old

Benefit check bot

Healthcare & Life Sciences · Research 51/100 at publication

  • 35 newer reports published in Healthcare & Life Sciences since this one.
  • 2 newer reports share at least one tag.
Published July 3, 2026
strengthening 114d old

Factory VR trainer

Manufacturing & Supply Chain · Rethink 47/100 at publication

  • 10 newer reports published in Manufacturing & Supply Chain since this one.
  • 3 newer reports share at least one tag.
Published July 2, 2026
strengthening 115d old

Vertigo relief app

Healthcare & Life Sciences · Research 56/100 at publication

  • 36 newer reports published in Healthcare & Life Sciences since this one.
  • 8 newer reports share at least one tag.
Published July 1, 2026
strengthening 117d old

Trade voice copilo

Construction & Field Trades · Research 56/100 at publication

  • 4 newer reports published in Construction & Field Trades since this one.
  • 10 newer reports share at least one tag.
Published June 29, 2026
strengthening 121d old

Grammarly for lawsuits

Legal, Risk & Compliance · Research 53/100 at publication

  • 6 newer reports published in Legal, Risk & Compliance since this one.
  • 13 newer reports share at least one tag.
Published June 25, 2026
strengthening 140d old

Parent-teacher meeting prep brief

Education & Training · Research 62/100 at publication

  • 7 newer reports published in Education & Training since this one.
  • 8 newer reports share at least one tag.
  • 2 live complaint clusters still echo the underlying pain.
Published June 6, 2026

Methodology

  • Vertical coverage — newer reports published in the same vertical since this one.
  • Tag momentum — newer reports sharing at least one tag.
  • Trend overlap — current trend candidates matching the idea's market and tag language.
  • Complaint echo — live complaint clusters still carrying the idea's tags.

Deterministic, recomputed from the daily research sweep, and free of paid API calls. A re-check measures signal persistence around the opportunity — it does not claim anyone built the idea.

Prediction methodology

  • One claim per report — derived from the publication verdict and why-now thesis.
  • Confirmed — signal checks strengthen, or a funded same-vertical company signal appears inside the window.
  • Refuted — the window closes and the site’s own re-check finds no surviving signal.
  • Calibration — predicted confidence is binned against realized outcomes with a Brier-style score.

Use it like an analyst

Strengthening + Validate verdict is the highest-leverage combination in the archive: the evidence aged well and nobody has claimed the wedge. Open the report, run its 7-day sprint, and decide on data.

Verify this page

Every number here is recomputed from public data you can hash yourself — no trust required.

  • Full ledger: /predictions.json — the same records rendered above.
  • Tamper check: /manifest.json pins a SHA-256 hash of every data endpoint (the ledger included) and the exact gitCommit the build shipped from.
  • Embed the badge: <img src="https://ideanavigatorai.com/badge/track-record.svg"> — live hit rate, sample size, and Brier score.