Track Record

We score our own calls.

Each published report now carries a dated, resolvable prediction. The ledger marks calls confirmed, refuted, or still open using the same daily signal checks and public company signals that power the intelligence graph. The point is not hype; it is a public record of when the site was right and when it killed its own thesis.

100% resolved hit rate
64.8% confirmed of all calls
41/219 reached judgment date
0% owned kill rate
0.116 Brier calibration

Ledger refreshed September 8, 2026. Resolutions are deterministic and appended to /changes.json as verdict-resolved.

Prediction ledger

Resolved verdicts and open calls.

Confirmed means the opportunity strengthened inside the window. Refuted means the site’s own signal decay rules killed the thesis. Open calls remain visible.

Confirmed

142

Signals strengthened or a same-vertical company/funding signal arrived during the prediction window.

Refuted

0

Owned kills: theses the site downgraded because the signal window elapsed without support.

Open

77

Still awaiting enough dated evidence to resolve without manual judgment.

Confidence bin Resolved Avg confidence Realized hit rate Brier score
40-60% 56 53.3% 100% 0.219
60-80% 37 69.7% 100% 0.095
80-100% 49 88% 100% 0.014

Receipts

Every call, dated and resolvable.

Resolved calls first, then open ones. Latest 50 shown; the full ledger is at /predictions.json. Each card deep-links via #prediction-<slug>.

confirmed 60% confidence

Risk-flag review layer for AI-coded bookkeeping

Demand for Accounting firm software strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

September 8, 2026
confirmed 60% confidence

Citation tracker for brands losing AI search traffic

Demand for AI search visibility / generative engine optimization strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

September 7, 2026
confirmed 62% confidence

Security and guardrail layer for MCP servers

Demand for AI agent infrastructure security strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

September 6, 2026
confirmed 57% confidence

Deal-to-checklist automation for real estate brokerages

Demand for Real estate technology and brokerage operations strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

September 6, 2026
confirmed 52% confidence

Licensing and approvals hub for voice actors' AI clones

Demand for Voice-talent licensing and rights management strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

September 2, 2026
confirmed 55% confidence

Per-action approval and audit for autonomous AI agents

Demand for Agent security and authorization infrastructure strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 31, 2026
confirmed 58% confidence

Pocket voice lab

Demand for Consumer/prosumer voice-training and voice-health apps, with a beachhead in gender-affirming voice training (transfeminine/transmasculine pitch and resonance work) strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 31, 2026
confirmed 55% confidence

Daily AI check-in calls for seniors living alone

Demand for Aging-in-place wellness and family peace-of-mind strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 29, 2026
confirmed 61% confidence

10-minute client risk reports for solo financial advisors

Demand for Independent financial advisory and RIA services strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 28, 2026
confirmed 47% confidence

Category-filtered estate-sale leads for resellers

Demand for Estate sale sourcing for resellers strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 27, 2026
confirmed 48% confidence

Webcam blink-rate tracker that cuts screen eye strain

Demand for Digital eye strain and screen wellness strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 23, 2026
confirmed 55% confidence

Mobile app that tracks badminton matches, rankings, and highlights

Demand for Recreational and club-level badminton players in North America and Europe who play organized social sessions (drop-ins, round robins, club leagues) but lack a unified way to track results, rank themselves, and share clips. strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 22, 2026
confirmed 54% confidence

One FERPA-ready student record that follows the kid

Demand for K-12 student support and counseling software strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 22, 2026
confirmed 58% confidence

Women's health radar

Demand for Femtech / digital health, specifically the perimenopause and menopause care segment for women aged roughly 40-58 navigating the menopausal transition. strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 22, 2026
confirmed 50% confidence

Competitor-price tracker for TikTok Shop sellers

Demand for TikTok Shop seller software strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 21, 2026
confirmed 54% confidence

Guest app with day-of seating lookup and schedule

Demand for Wedding technology and guest experience strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 21, 2026
confirmed 60% confidence

One markdown file, publish-ready for every platform

Demand for Creator tooling and content distribution strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 19, 2026
confirmed 52% confidence

DIY Chrome extensions

Demand for Browser productivity tooling and the no-code/AI app-builder space, specifically AI-assisted Chrome extension creation for non-developers. strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 17, 2026
confirmed 52% confidence

Phone-based injury-risk movement screening for hiring

Demand for Pre-employment occupational health screening strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 16, 2026
confirmed 48% confidence

Caseload pipeline for restorative justice programs

Demand for Restorative justice program administration strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 15, 2026
confirmed 58% confidence

Defense security cert

Demand for US Defense Industrial Base (DIB) cybersecurity compliance — CMMC / NIST SP 800-171 readiness and certification automation strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 15, 2026
confirmed 88% confidence

Food signal monitor: mountain mike's pizza

Demand for Food strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 15, 2026
confirmed 55% confidence

Pre-call memory cards for relationship-driven pros

Demand for CRM and relationship-intelligence tools strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 15, 2026
confirmed 50% confidence

Anonymous daily check-ins for 12-step sponsors

Demand for Addiction recovery support tools strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 14, 2026
confirmed 52% confidence

Factory VR trainer

Demand for Industrial / manufacturing workforce training (EHS safety, machine operation, and onboarding), part of the broader immersive enterprise training market estimated at USD 14.55B in 2025. strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 14, 2026
confirmed 55% confidence

ChatGPT rank monitor

Demand for Answer Engine Optimization / Generative Engine Optimization (AEO/GEO) — brand visibility analytics for AI search strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 13, 2026
confirmed 55% confidence

GLP-1 pharmacy index

Demand for US GLP-1 access and pricing data — a real-time index of brand-name GLP-1 (Ozempic, Wegovy, Zepbound, Mounjaro) stock, dose availability, and cash-pay price across pharmacies and manufacturer direct channels. strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 13, 2026
confirmed 52% confidence

Backyard home reports

Demand for US residential proptech / ADU (accessory dwelling unit) construction and home improvement strengthens within 90 days of publication.

The 30-day signal check found two or more live signals around the original thesis.

August 11, 2026

Signal re-checks

How the back catalog is aging.

Strengthening = two or more live signals. Steady = one. Quiet = none in the current sweep — a finding, not a verdict.

strengthening 56d old

Defense security cert

Legal, Risk & Compliance · Research 52/100 at publication

  • 2 newer reports published in Legal, Risk & Compliance since this one.
  • 5 newer reports share at least one tag.
Published July 14, 2026
strengthening 58d old

Backyard home reports

Real Estate & Property · Rethink 47/100 at publication

  • 4 newer reports published in Real Estate & Property since this one.
  • 3 newer reports share at least one tag.
Published July 12, 2026
strengthening 59d old

Empty trust tracker

Education & Training · Research 56/100 at publication

  • 4 newer reports published in Education & Training since this one.
  • 5 newer reports share at least one tag.
Published July 11, 2026
strengthening 63d old

Women's health radar

Healthcare & Life Sciences · Research 56/100 at publication

  • 18 newer reports published in Healthcare & Life Sciences since this one.
  • 1 newer report share at least one tag.
Published July 7, 2026
strengthening 67d old

Benefit check bot

Healthcare & Life Sciences · Research 51/100 at publication

  • 21 newer reports published in Healthcare & Life Sciences since this one.
  • 1 newer report share at least one tag.
Published July 3, 2026
strengthening 68d old

Factory VR trainer

Manufacturing & Supply Chain · Rethink 47/100 at publication

  • 9 newer reports published in Manufacturing & Supply Chain since this one.
  • 3 newer reports share at least one tag.
Published July 2, 2026
strengthening 69d old

Vertigo relief app

Healthcare & Life Sciences · Research 56/100 at publication

  • 22 newer reports published in Healthcare & Life Sciences since this one.
  • 6 newer reports share at least one tag.
Published July 1, 2026
strengthening 71d old

Trade voice copilo

Construction & Field Trades · Research 56/100 at publication

  • 3 newer reports published in Construction & Field Trades since this one.
  • 8 newer reports share at least one tag.
Published June 29, 2026
strengthening 75d old

Grammarly for lawsuits

Legal, Risk & Compliance · Research 53/100 at publication

  • 3 newer reports published in Legal, Risk & Compliance since this one.
  • 11 newer reports share at least one tag.
Published June 25, 2026
strengthening 94d old

Parent-teacher meeting prep brief

Education & Training · Research 62/100 at publication

  • 5 newer reports published in Education & Training since this one.
  • 4 newer reports share at least one tag.
  • 2 live complaint clusters still echo the underlying pain.
Published June 6, 2026

Methodology

  • Vertical coverage — newer reports published in the same vertical since this one.
  • Tag momentum — newer reports sharing at least one tag.
  • Trend overlap — current trend candidates matching the idea's market and tag language.
  • Complaint echo — live complaint clusters still carrying the idea's tags.

Deterministic, recomputed from the daily research sweep, and free of paid API calls. A re-check measures signal persistence around the opportunity — it does not claim anyone built the idea.

Prediction methodology

  • One claim per report — derived from the publication verdict and why-now thesis.
  • Confirmed — signal checks strengthen, or a funded same-vertical company signal appears inside the window.
  • Refuted — the window closes and the site’s own re-check finds no surviving signal.
  • Calibration — predicted confidence is binned against realized outcomes with a Brier-style score.

Use it like an analyst

Strengthening + Validate verdict is the highest-leverage combination in the archive: the evidence aged well and nobody has claimed the wedge. Open the report, run its 7-day sprint, and decide on data.

Verify this page

Every number here is recomputed from public data you can hash yourself — no trust required.

  • Full ledger: /predictions.json — the same records rendered above.
  • Tamper check: /manifest.json pins a SHA-256 hash of every data endpoint (the ledger included) and the exact gitCommit the build shipped from.
  • Embed the badge: <img src="https://ideanavigatorai.com/badge/track-record.svg"> — live hit rate, sample size, and Brier score.